The containerized imports forecast points to U.S. port volumes below 2025 levels after June. That pattern is expected from late summer into early fall. Still, May and June are forecast to show year-over-year increases. This is reported by the railway transport news portal Railway Supply.

U.S. port imports forecast points to summer decline
Photo: Port of Los Angeles. U.S. port imports forecast points to summer decline

The projection comes from the latest Global Port Tracker report. It was released late last week by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

Global Port Tracker report shows short-term gains

Jonathan Gold is NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. He said the expected short-term gains need to be viewed against last year’s sharp decline. “The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” Gold said in a press release. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”

Meanwhile, Ben Hackett is the founder of Hackett Associates. He said retailers remain cautious about building inventories amid economic uncertainty.

“Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” he said.

According to Global Port Tracker, May volume is forecast at 2.17 million 20-foot equivalent units. Also, the figure covers the U.S. ports in the report. It is up 11.1% from May 2025. In addition, June volume is expected to reach 2.13 million TEUs. That would be an 8.2% year-over-year increase.

Import volume decline expected from July

At the same time, the forecast shifts to declines for the next three months. July import volume is projected to fall 7.8% to 2.2 million TEUs. August is expected to drop 5.5% to 2.19 million TEUs. September is forecast to decline 1.3% to 2.08 million TEUs.

“Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.59 million TEUs, up 0.5% from the same period in 2025, thanks, in part, to the May and June increases,” NRF and Hackett Associates officials said.

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