CANADA: ALTO’s preliminary target of up to 24 million annual passengers by 2055 is facing a methodology challenge after Coalition for Better Rail advanced much lower alternative ridership estimates.

Green high-speed train travelling through a snowy landscape in an Alto project visual
Official Alto project image illustrating high-speed rail in winter conditions. Photo: Alto

Kingston Daily reported Coalition for Better Rail spokesperson Dr. Andrew Hyett as saying future ridership could be closer to 6–7 million trips per year, based on comparisons with rail systems in car-dependent regions. That figure is an attributed interview estimate, not an official revision of ALTO’s forecast.

ALTO Calls 24 Million a Preliminary Forecast

ALTO’s own ridership FAQ describes up to 24 million annual passengers by 2055 as a preliminary estimate that will be refined as the project develops. The corporation says its forecasting uses internationally recognized models and considers current demand, population growth, shifts to rail and new travel created by rapid, frequent service.

ALTO also says the estimate depends on choices that are still being refined, including the final alignment, station locations, service frequency and train capacity. Its public material therefore explains the categories of assumptions behind the forecast, but does not provide enough detail to reproduce the full 24 million calculation independently.

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The Published Methodology Gives Different Lower Ranges

The Kingston Daily report attributes the 6–7 million figure to Hyett. However, a July corridor-demand technical brief on the Citizen Research site linked to the wider Coalition material does not use 6–7 million as its central case.

That brief puts its central estimate at about 8–9 million annual trips around 2055, rising toward 10 million at maturity. Separately, its reference-class method produces a 4–5 million risk-adjusted floor by comparing corridors on car dependence, population density, trip lengths and transit provision at their endpoints.

Published and reported ridership figures

Figure Status Published or reported basis
Up to 24 million/year by 2055 ALTO preliminary estimate Internationally recognized models; current demand, population growth, rail shift and new travel; alignment, stations, frequency and capacity still being refined.
6–7 million/year Attributed interview estimate Reported by Kingston Daily from Dr. Andrew Hyett; described as based on comparisons with car-dependent regions.
About 8–9 million/year around 2055 Citizen Research technical-brief central case Car, air and retained rail markets, checked with modal-shift analysis, reference-class evidence and current population assumptions.
About 4–5 million/year Citizen Research reference-class floor Comparable corridors scored for car dependence, density, trip length and endpoint transit provision.

The Dispute Is About How Demand Is Counted

The technical brief cross-checks its reference class with a market build-up: roughly 2.8–3.5 million riders diverted from cars, 1.7–2.0 million from air and about 3.3 million existing VIA Rail passengers retained, producing its 8–9 million central range. It also re-bases population assumptions on Statistics Canada’s January 2026 projection.

That makes the public disagreement more complicated than a simple 24 million versus 6–7 million contest. ALTO publishes a preliminary top-line target and broad modeling factors; the linked Citizen Research analysis publishes lower ranges produced by several outside-view and market-demand methods. The 6–7 million number should therefore remain attributed to Hyett’s reported comment rather than be presented as the published central forecast.

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