Iran’s ambitious rail expansion faces significant challenges, especially with Trump behind the wheel. Economic, logistical, and geopolitical pressures raise serious doubts about its feasibility. This was reported by the railway transport news portal Railway Supply.

Iran’s ambitious rail expansion faces significant challenges, especially with Trump behind the wheel. Economic, logistical, and geopolitical pressures raise serious doubts about its feasibility.
Image: ANP/AFP. © Jim Watson

Trump’s Influence on Iran’s Rail Ambitions

Iran plans to construct nine rail corridors spanning 3,200 kilometers of new tracks to strengthen connectivity. These corridors, part of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), could transform Iran into a key transit hub. However, with Trump behind the wheel, escalating geopolitical pressures threaten to derail these plans.

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Tehran aims to link the Astara hub on the Azerbaijan border to the Indian Ocean. The project would connect vital ports such as Bandar-Khomeini, Bushehr, Bandar-Abbas, and Chabahar. These connections are expected to boost trade and streamline regional transportation.

Another corridor along Iran’s eastern border with Pakistan and Afghanistan seeks to unlock access to the Indian Ocean for Central Asian countries. This line promises significant transit revenue by enhancing connectivity on the eastern branch of the INSTC.

Economic and Political Roadblocks

Iran estimates the rail expansion will cost over €10 billion and boost freight capacity to 60 million tonnes annually. Yet, with Trump behind the wheel, U.S. sanctions continue to cripple Iran’s economy, complicating its ability to finance infrastructure.

Delays already plague critical projects, such as the Rasht–Astara railway, a key component of the INSTC’s western branch. Despite agreements dating back to 2005, construction has not begun. Similarly, a rail line to Chabahar, expected by 2024, remains unfinished. These delays not only inflate costs but also jeopardize the overall timeline for completion.

Iran’s ambitious rail expansion faces significant challenges, especially with Trump behind the wheel. Economic, logistical, and geopolitical pressures raise serious doubts about its feasibility.
A variation of the INSTC. Image: Shutterstock. © Peter Hermes Furian

Iran’s economic crisis adds another layer of difficulty. Sanctions have weakened the oil and gas sector, slashing revenue needed for development. Despite being a major energy producer, Iran struggles with energy rationing and risks becoming a net importer if domestic demand continues rising.

Disagreements with Russia over the Rasht–Astara railway further stall progress. While Russia pushes for swift action to curb land price inflation, Iran appears hesitant, possibly due to financial constraints. With Moscow funding much of the project, these delays could strain relations between the two allies.

Geopolitical Tensions Could Halt the INSTC

Regional tensions add another significant barrier to Iran’s rail ambitions. With Trump behind the wheel, the U.S. has tightened its stance on Iran, emboldening adversaries like Israel. This has forced Iran to triple its military budget to over $30 billion for 2025, diverting crucial funds away from infrastructure development.

The potential loss of Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad further weakens Iran’s geopolitical position. Israel, a long-time rival, may take advantage of the instability to disrupt Iran’s plans further. Experts warn that such conflicts could destabilize the region and deter international freight companies from using Iran as a transit hub.

Iran’s vision for the INSTC hinges on reliable infrastructure, but without stability and funding, its future is uncertain. If Iran cannot fulfill its role as a transit hub, the entire INSTC could collapse, leaving regional trade plans in jeopardy.

The Future of Iran’s Rail Projects

Iran’s ambitious rail plans were already challenging before Trump’s presidency. Now, with heightened sanctions, economic instability, and escalating regional tensions, they seem increasingly unattainable.

With Trump behind the wheel, Iran faces mounting pressure that threatens the success of its infrastructure goals. The INSTC, a project that could redefine regional trade, now hangs by a thread. Whether Iran can overcome these obstacles remains to be seen, but the odds are stacked against it.

Source: www.railfreight.com

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