Five Caspian theses about a new route from China to Germany bypassing Russia from the National expert information platform TransExpert.kz, mention Railway Supply magazine.

Train route bypassing Russia

“In many media, the news about the launch of a new route to Germany, bypassing Russia through the territory of Kazakhstan and the Caspian, caused a great stir. It is understandable that the current environment adds a political focus to these types of messages. What I think is important to note in line with the ongoing discussion on this topic,” the newspaper writes.

1️⃣ This route can be called “new” with a big stretch. Logistic chains from China, through the Caspian and Black Sea regions to European countries have been built for decades since the launch of the Trasek project, which in recent years has essentially transformed into TMTM. Yes, sometimes the geography changes a little, new European cities or Chinese provinces appear, but the base of the route itself has been functioning for a long time and stably.

2️⃣China, even before the current military events, declared its commitment to supporting several routes at the same time: both sea and traditional railway service UTLC, and TMTM, and even in recent years – complex schemes with the participation of partners from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Of course, the sanctions against Russia and the resulting problems with payments, the risks of running into dissatisfaction with the European and American authorities will stimulate China to more actively develop alternative routes.

3️⃣ Once again we all saw that international logistics is always a part of geopolitics. And today’s growth in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea is a direct confirmation of this. The transportation of goods through the seaports of Aktau and Kuryk along the TMTR route increased by 41%. Growth was 5 400 TEU compared to Q1 2021.

4️⃣But were our port workers ready for such a container boom? It was not possible to rebuild at once, and now and then there are reports of ports “choking” from unexpected cargo flows. It was necessary to urgently use the Beket Ata vessel on the regular feeder line Aktau-Baku-Aktau (I wonder what it was busy with before?). The ship set sail on April 20 this year with 210 TEUs on board.

In addition to transit, which is important in terms of income and payment for the transport of social goods, export deliveries should be a priority. Here, transport workers unanimously complain about exporters who do not provide loading plans for at least three months in advance, and at the same time independently negotiate with partners from Georgia and Azerbaijan. This greatly complicates the process of predictable and well-established transportation across the Caspian. In turn, exporters accuse the railroads of keeping information secret and supporting only transiters to the detriment of other shippers. This long-term confrontation certainly does not benefit the Kazakh economy.

But we are not the only ones experiencing difficulties. Baku, Poti, Batumi are also trying to quickly adjust to work in the new conditions. The Russians are not asleep either: for example, they load the railway infrastructure of Azerbaijan with Russian, transit, Iranian cargoes to the maximum, which complicates the work of TMTM.

5️⃣The current situation has exacerbated the need for our own merchant fleet. Most of the ferries operating in Kazakhstani ports are almost the same age as independence. I will make a separate post on this subject.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that we will get an increase in transportation through the Caspian Sea at the end of the year. And their volumes, and the sustainability of the service itself in the long term, will depend on how quickly we can competently rebuild the technology of work, external interaction with the countries of the region and internal – ports, railways, shippers and control agencies.

I fully admit that what we could not properly fix for years, it is at this moment of crisis that it will have all the chances for a truly serious success. And to the unprecedented surprise of officials, all the positive forecasts from the program strategies that have already sunk into oblivion will finally come true.

P.S.: So, a large German company Martrade Group visited the port of Aktau with the intention of exploring the possibility of investing, and before that, it was reported about the plans of the Singapore company PSA International Pte Ltd to participate in the creation of the Aktau container hub. It is no accident that right now all the advanced flags are visiting us.

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