AUSTRALIA: Cancelling Melbourne’s SRL East would improve Victoria’s budget position by $21 billion over the next decade, according to a Parliamentary Budget Office costing requested by David Limbrick.

Cancelling SRL East Could Save $21 Billion
David Limbrick MP, backed by Parliamentary Budget Office figures, says it’s not too late to cancel SRL. (Stewart Chambers: 556302)

Cancellation estimate combines savings and exit costs

The scenario reported by Star News concerns SRL East, the first section of the planned 90-kilometre orbital railway linking Melbourne Airport and the Werribee line.

The costing estimates $33 billion in savings from avoided project works and interest expenses. About $12 billion would offset that benefit through contract termination payments, worker retrenchments, foregone tax revenue and the loss of federal funding, leaving the state budget $21 billion better off over ten years.

Its assumptions include the project being delivered on budget and opening on schedule in 2035. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said the federal government’s $6 billion contribution can be used only for the Suburban Rail Loop.

Limbrick, the Libertarian Party leader who requested the analysis, said the figures showed it was “absolutely not too late to cancel the SRL” and argued that stopping earlier would reduce the eventual cost.

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Contracts and construction keep SRL East active

Cancellation would affect a project already under construction. Victoria’s latest State Budget papers state that $13 billion in contracts have been awarded, while station works contracts are due to be awarded in 2026 and 2027. Major works are under way across all six future station sites, with tunnelling expected to begin in the coming months.

The official SRL East project page describes 26 kilometres of twin tunnels connecting six new underground stations from Cheltenham to Box Hill. Construction began in mid-2022, and passenger services are scheduled for 2035.

Premier Ben Carroll gave the clearest government response in Victoria’s Parliament on 29 July, saying: “We will not be cancelling contracts.” A day earlier, he said questions about the project would be addressed through a cabinet process and that spending would remain accountable through the budget process.

Supporters point to future transport demand

The Victorian Government has argued that SRL will help the network accommodate 11.8 million additional daily trips and manage an 80% increase in private-vehicle journeys by 2056. It has also estimated journey-time savings of up to 30 minutes on trips such as Dandenong–Box Hill and Narre Warren–Burwood.

Labor MPs Michael Galea and Meng Heang Tak continue to support SRL East, citing the connections it would provide for Melbourne’s south-east. The state opposition called for a pause in 2023 and proposed redirecting funding to the Airport Rail project.

The PBO exercise therefore quantifies a cancellation scenario rather than an announced government decision. The immediate position is that existing contracts will not be cancelled, while the cabinet considers the project through its budget process.

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