Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail could run up to 72 trains daily

Internal documents outlining the Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail plan suggest the corridor could support a much denser schedule than Canada’s current intercity service.

This is reported by the railway transport news portal Railway Supply.

Alto, the Crown corporation responsible for the project, estimates that as many as 72 passenger trains per day could operate if the roughly 1,000-kilometre network is built.

The proposal is intended to reduce travel times as well. Planning scenarios point to a Montreal–Toronto travel time of about three hours on the high-speed system.

Don’t miss…Midlands Rail Hub Alliance picked to shape £1.75bn programme

Draft versions of a 2023 technical briefing, obtained by The Canadian Press through an access-to-information request, show Alto was evaluating the case for high-speed rail more than a year before the government announced the project, as reported by CTV News. An Alto spokesperson said the corporation still considers 72 trains per day a “reasonable estimate.”

Benoit Bourdeau said Alto’s goal is 20 to 30 trains a day in each direction between Toronto and Montreal—compared with roughly eight in each direction currently offered by VIA Rail. The plan also includes express trains that would not stop at every station, alongside services that make more frequent stops.

Bourdeau said current planning aims for frequent departures, generally hourly, with the option of a train every 30 minutes during peak periods depending on the route. Still, he emphasized the 2023 figures are working assumptions rather than final service decisions.

VIA Rail says an average of 39 trains currently transport passengers daily along the various legs of the Quebec City–Toronto corridor. In February, then-prime minister Justin Trudeau formally unveiled plans for the high-speed rail network and called it “the largest infrastructure project in Canadian history,” according to a Prime Minister of Canada news release. Under the proposal, trains would run at speeds of up to 300 kilometres per hour on dedicated tracks and be powered by electricity.

Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail vs high-frequency plans

The February announcement marked a shift from the high-frequency network the government had been promising for several years, a more modest project with lower speeds and a smaller price tag. In September, Prime Minister Mark Carney said the government’s new major projects office would speed up engineering and regulatory work tied to the railway.

Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon announced last week that the first segment of the high-speed rail network will connect Montreal and Ottawa, and construction is expected to start in 2029—an approach also discussed by Railway Supply. Alto estimates the full project will cost $60 billion to $90 billion, while the government has not yet made a final decision approving funding for the entire rail line.

Alto planning documents and future service levels

Back in 2023, the corporation—then called VIA HFR—was already considering a pivot from high-frequency to high-speed rail. The documents point to concerns that public support might not be there for a high-frequency system. In Quebec, provincial and municipal politicians were openly saying they would prefer a high-speed network. VIA HFR completed a preliminary study of high-speed rail to calculate cost, journey time, ridership and revenue estimates.

A technical briefing prepared for newly appointed CEO Martin Imbleau in September 2023 compared VIA Rail’s existing passenger rail system with high-frequency and high-speed options. Although many figures are redacted, portions released by Alto indicate 72 trains could travel the Quebec City–Toronto corridor each day by 2039. The same drafts suggest the original high-frequency project might only have reached 58 trains per day along the corridor by 2045, operating at slower speeds.

Those documents also say that 24 passenger trains were travelling the existing tracks daily at that time, though VIA Rail says its service levels have “evolved considerably” in recent years following cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic. A separate briefing for the prime minister’s office, obtained through another access-to-information request, forecasts 26.5 million annual trips on a high-speed system by 2059, compared with 17.7 million trips on a high-frequency network. That drops to 6.4 million trips forecast with existing VIA services.

Demand, competition, and what riders might do

Ryan Katz-Rosene, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa who studies high-speed rail, said Alto is banking on attracting passengers who might otherwise travel by car or plane, as well as new passengers who might not otherwise travel at all. He cautioned that induced demand is difficult to judge because market context and competition in 2030 and 2035 remain uncertain, including the possibility of autonomous vehicles shaping how people travel.

Terry Johnson, president of Transport Action Canada, said there is a vast amount of untapped demand for faster rail in the corridor. He argued that a line capable of trips such as Toronto to Quebec City for a long weekend could open up entirely new travel possibilities for Canadians.

News on railway transport, industry, and railway technologies from Railway Supply that you might have missed: