Global Port Tracker Predicts Significant Import Slowdown

The latest Global Port Tracker projects a steep decline in North American import volumes through late 2025, as tariffs and shifting trade policies disrupt shipping flows and pressure both retailers and exporters. This is reported by the railway transport news portal Railway Supply.

North American Trade Outlook in the Global Port Tracker

Imports at major U.S. and Canadian container ports are on track to total 24.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2025. This represents a 5.6% drop from the 25.5 million TEUs recorded in 2024.

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NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold warned that rising tariffs are pushing consumer prices higher and will ultimately limit product availability on store shelves. He urged for trade agreements that open markets rather than restrict them.

Late-2025 Volume Forecasts from the Global Port Tracker

Analysts predict the slowdown will intensify in September as holiday inventories are already in place. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that counter tariffs are leaving U.S. exporters with unsold goods.

The Global Port Tracker forecasts September imports at 1.83 million TEUs, down 19.5% from last year. October should drop 18.9% to 1.82 million TEUs, while November is set to fall 21.1% to 1.71 million TEUs.

December volume is projected to decline 19.3% to 1.72 million TEUs. Analysts attribute this trend partly to cargo being moved earlier in the year to avoid tariffs and partly to last year’s unusually high volumes caused by strike concerns.

Industry leaders warn that sustained trade tensions could deepen the downturn into 2026. Higher tariffs disrupt shipping schedules and make long-term planning difficult. Businesses that front-loaded inventories may still face shortages if demand spikes unexpectedly.

The report concludes that reducing trade barriers and negotiating market-opening agreements will be critical to stabilizing import and export flows in the years ahead.

Source: www.progressiverailroading.com

FAQ

What is the Global Port Tracker?

The Global Port Tracker is a monthly report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates that analyzes and forecasts U.S. and Canadian port cargo volumes.

How do tariffs affect import volumes?

Tariffs increase costs for imported goods, which can raise consumer prices and reduce demand, leading to fewer shipments and lower overall port volumes.

Can businesses prepare for the declines predicted in the Global Port Tracker?

Yes, companies can adjust by securing cargo earlier, diversifying suppliers, and monitoring trade policy updates via official sources like National Retail Federation.

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