IRELAND: The Dublin MetroLink cost estimate could reach €19 billion as the Government prepares an autumn decision on whether to invite construction tenders for the planned 19 km automated line.

A Luas tram at Charlemont stop in Dublin, the planned southern terminus of MetroLink.
A Luas Citadis tram at Charlemont stop in Dublin. Illustrative image; it does not show MetroLink construction. Photo: Mojito / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 3.0.

The Irish Times reports that transport-sector sources expect the Cabinet to receive a range of about €15 billion to more than €18 billion. Three sources close to Government said there were concerns that the eventual figure could reach €19 billion.

The potential €19 billion total has not been formally published, and it remains unclear whether it includes money already spent. The previous business case, completed four years ago, used €9.5 billion as the midpoint of a credible range between €7.16 billion and €12.25 billion.

Autumn decision would open the tender stage

The National Transport Authority and the Department of Transport are finalising their review of an updated business case prepared by Transport Infrastructure Ireland. TII submitted revised cost estimates to the NTA in March.

The Cabinet is expected to consider the project in the autumn at “approval gate two”. A positive decision would allow TII to seek construction tenders, but it would not be the final authorisation to build the metro. That decision is expected only after competitive bids have been received and assessed.

Under the current sequence, TII could sign enabling-works contracts by Christmas, allowing utility relocations and other preparatory street works to begin next year. Tunnelling contracts could be awarded by the end of next year, supporting a possible construction start in 2028. The works could then take up to eight years, depending on the selected bids.

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Advertised contracts show the programme’s scale

The project’s largest published procurement values already exceed €17.5 billion when combined, although they are not a final budget. The M401 and M402 civil works notices carry a maximum combined value of €7.9 billion excluding VAT. They cover bored tunnels, station excavations, viaducts, portals and preparation of the depot site.

A separate €7.3 billion public-private partnership notice is expressed in net present value terms and covers rolling stock, GoA4 driverless signalling, track, power, station fit-out, system operation and maintenance for 25 years. Enabling-works opportunities total €1.88 billion, while the programme delivery partner contract is valued at €550 million.

TII has stressed that notice values guide bidders rather than establish the final project cost. It expects the civil works bids to be considerably below their stated maximum, while the PPP price could move higher or lower with market conditions. Spending to date is expected to exceed €725 million by year-end, and further supplier opportunities are still planned.

MetroLink would connect Swords with central Dublin

MetroLink is planned as an 18.8 km line with 16 stations between Swords and Charlemont, serving Dublin Airport, Ballymun, Glasnevin and the city centre. Most of the route would run underground.

The automated system is designed for up to 20,000 passengers per hour in each direction. Initial peak services are planned every three minutes, with an estimated 20-minute journey between Dublin Airport and the city centre. These benefits remain conditional on the Government advancing the project through tendering and later approving the resulting construction proposal.

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