Dublin MetroLink cleared for tender at €15.75bn, 47% above 2022 estimate
Ireland’s Cabinet has cleared Dublin MetroLink for detailed tendering, with delivery costs estimated at €14.44–17.49 billion excluding VAT and market bids expected from contractors in 2027.
The decision, taken on 16 September 2026, follows a joint review of MetroLink’s Detailed Business Case by the Department of Transport and the National Transport Authority (NTA). The review was carried out under Approval Gate 2, the pre-tender checkpoint in the Infrastructure Guidelines. The Detailed Business Case puts the delivery cost at between €14.44 billion and €17.49 billion, including contingency and inflation but excluding VAT. The government says firm cost ranges will emerge only after market bids are received in 2027.
Why the estimate has grown since 2022
The €9.5 billion figure dates from July 2022, when Cabinet gave the project Approval Gate 1, or approval in principle, and it was expressed in 2021 prices. The NTA’s explainer on the latest decision restates that estimate at €10.70 billion in 2025 prices, the price base of the new figure. On a like-for-like basis, the central estimate is therefore about €5.05 billion, or 47%, higher, according to a Railway Supply calculation from the NTA figures.
The NTA lists the main drivers. Contractor costs rose by €1.04 billion, partly because market consolidation since 2021 has reduced competition. Design changes added €1.16 billion, reflecting commitments given during planning on matters such as the disposal of excavated material, platform layouts, tunnelling methods, fire and pedestrian modelling, and escalators. A further €0.51 billion covers workers’ accommodation and planning commitments that were not yet in the design when the baseline was fixed in August 2025, while inflation accounts for €1.06 billion. The risk allowance was also raised after research by Oxford Global Projects showed that first-of-a-kind schemes tend to exceed their budgets by more than later ones.
| Cost head | 2022 approval in principle, restated in 2025 prices | 2026 Approval Gate 2 estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct costs | 5.20 | 7.92 | +2.72 |
| Land and property | 0.49 | 0.72 | +0.23 |
| Indirect costs | 0.87 | 1.46 | +0.59 |
| Base delivery cost | 6.56 | 10.10 | +3.54 |
| Risk allowance | 1.95 | 3.49 | +1.54 |
| Future inflation | 2.19 | 2.16 | −0.03 |
| Total | 10.70 | 15.75 | +5.05 |
The like-for-like increase is €5.05 billion, and the largest single rise is in direct costs. In 2021 prices the 2022 total was €9.50 billion. Change is a Railway Supply calculation (2026 estimate minus 2022 estimate, both in 2025 prices). Source: National Transport Authority, Approval Gate 2 explainer, September 2026.
The appraisal still shows benefits above costs. Counting only direct effects such as faster journeys, lower congestion, safety and environmental gains, each €1 invested is expected to return €1.13 to €1.78. With wider economic impacts included, the range is €1.26 to €1.95.
How MetroLink compares with other metro projects
Benchmarking against completed metro schemes worldwide places MetroLink’s cost per kilometre near the top of the range, according to the NTA. It attributes this to the many stations for a line of its length, a constrained urban setting, several complex stations and Ireland’s distance from continental Europe’s pool of specialist resources and workers. The schedule sits within the observed range: a comparison with 16 other metro projects found construction periods of 8 to 11 years, against 8 to 10 years estimated for MetroLink.
What the tender stage means for bidders
Approval Gate 2 allows Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII), which delivers the project, to award advance and enabling contracts and to begin tendering for the main construction and operating contracts. Pre-qualification for those contracts is already under way. On 3 February 2026, TII opened the competition for the M401 and M402 civil works packages, covering tunnels, station structures and viaducts, with a combined maximum contract notice value of €7.9 billion excluding VAT. TII expects tenders to come in considerably lower, and the M401 tender stage will start first.
In May 2026, TII launched a separate procurement for the M500 contract, a design, build, finance, operate and maintain agreement covering about seven years of works and 25 years of operation and maintenance. TII estimated its net present value cost to the Exchequer at about €7.3 billion excluding VAT as of February 2026, and set 23 July 2026 as the deadline for requests to participate. The two sets of figures are calculated on different bases and should not be added together.
The NTA says the procurement approach has also changed since 2022. The two northern civil works contracts were merged into one package, and unsuccessful bidders for the major contracts will receive partial compensation for bid costs to support competition. On 10 September 2026, TII appointed Jacobs AECOM as programme delivery partner, and the government backed plans in November 2025 for a dedicated MetroLink delivery body.
Route, capacity and housing
The line will run for 19 km, mostly underground, from Estuary and Swords to Charlemont, with 16 stations including Dublin Airport, Ballymun, Glasnevin, Dublin City University, and the Mater and Rotunda hospitals. At opening, 64-metre trains are planned every three minutes in each direction at peak, giving capacity for up to 20,000 passengers per direction per hour, which the government puts at more than twice that of the Luas Green Line. Interchanges at Glasnevin and Tara Street and a park-and-ride site at Estuary are designed to connect the line with heavy rail services and car users.
Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien linked the project to housing supply:
“MetroLink will support the delivery of approximately 77,000 new homes along its route and, through its integration with other public transport services, up to 200,000 new homes across the Greater Dublin Area.”
The NTA explainer breaks this down as about 77,000 homes along the route and support for more than 120,000 further units elsewhere in the Greater Dublin Area.
What happens next
Enabling works are scheduled to begin on site in early 2027, with tunnelling and station building to follow. Once tenders for the major contracts have been evaluated and prices are known, Cabinet must grant Approval Gate 3 before those contracts are awarded; the NTA expects that approval point to begin in late 2027. The NTA puts the start of passenger services between 2036 and 2038, with 2037 as the median.
The Department of Transport describes MetroLink as Ireland’s largest single project since the Ardnacrusha hydroelectric plant was built in the 1920s. TII says it will publish the Detailed Business Case in the coming days, with some information withheld because of the procurement process.
