This is 26% less than the volume of procurement in 2019-2021. The reduction is largely due to a slowdown in demand for gondola cars and low growth rates in freight traffic.

freight cars could be purchased
Forecast of purchases and write-offs by types of cars in thousand units Source: GTLK

These data are presented in a detailed review of the prospects of Russia rail transport, which was published by GTLK late last year. According to the materials, currently the fleet of freight cars in Russia is 1.2 million units and is one of the youngest in the world. This was reported by the railway magazine Railway Supply with reference to rollingstock.

Over the last ten years, the rolling stock has been significantly renewed and modernized – the average age has decreased from 16 to 12 years, including gondola cars – up to 9 years. In the structure of the fleet the largest volume is occupied by gondola cars (48%), tanks (21%) and fitting platforms (8%).

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The fleet of GTLK freight cars at the end of the 3rd quarter of last year amounted to 98.1 thousand units, 73.6 thousand of which  – gondola cars, 10 thousand – hoppers, 9.2 thousand – platforms, 5 thousand – covered cars, 0.3 thousand – tanks.

It is expected that in 2022, Russian market participants will buy 50.8 thousand cars, which will be the lowest value in 5 years. However, in 2023-2024 the demand will be even lower – at the level of 44 thousand cars per year.

The main impact will be the decline in demand for gondola cars. According to INFOline estimates, a significant volume of gondola production, which was recorded in 2017-2019, with small volumes of their write-off led to the fact that in 2022-2023 their purchases will fall to 15 thousand units per year, but in 2024 demand will recover slightly , up to 18 thousand gondola cars.

Demand for covered cars will also be lower: according to INFOline forecasts, market participants will buy less than 3,000 covered cars a year in 3 years. In addition, a significant slowdown in demand for oil tanks in 2023-2024 is forecast: the volume of their purchases will be 2.3-2.8 thousand against 4.1-4.2 thousand in 2021-2022.

According to INFOline, 2021 has peaked in demand for fitting platforms and will result in the purchase of 22.2 thousand platforms. At the same time, in 2022 the demand will decrease by 8% to 20.5 thousand cars, and in the following years will fall even more significantly: in 2023 the market will need only 16.5 thousand new fitting platforms, and in 2024 – 13, 7 thousand

In terms of transportation and freight turnover, experts expect that their growth rate will slow to 1-2% due to the completion of the resumption of growth in the oil cargo segment after the conclusion of the OPEC + agreement. At the same time, the dynamic growth of container transportation and export shipments of fertilizers and grain cargoes will continue. Growing demand for metals and building materials in the construction industry and industry will support domestic traffic.

“The key factors in increasing transportation and freight turnover in the medium term will be growing demand from China, increasing oil production and refining in Russia, maintaining high commodity prices, as well as gradually removing infrastructure constraints and increasing the capacity of BAM and Trans-Siberia,” he said.

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