Rail Passengers Association seeks UP-NS merger denial over rail capacity

The UP-NS merger faces a denial request from the Rail Passengers Association after its review found projected freight increases on 42 of 53 Amtrak route pairings.

In comments filed on September 9, the association argued that Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern have not made the passenger-rail showing required for a prima facie case. It also backed the joint motion for summary denial that five industry associations, including the American Chemistry Council, filed on August 6.

What the association found in the freight projections

For current Amtrak service, the association examined 53 pairings of a passenger service and a route segment for which the two railroads had quantified expected traffic changes. Freight traffic would rise on 42 of them, in most cases by two to ten trains a day. For 31 of those 42 pairings, the railroads call existing capacity sufficient. According to the association, they offer no timetable-based demonstration of how the added trains would run.

The review also covers planned services. Of the 69 projects selected under the federal Corridor ID program, 43, or 62.3%, could use Union Pacific or Norfolk Southern infrastructure. Of those, 22 share at least one stretch of track where the railroads expect more freight.

Evidence the association says is missing

According to the filing, the application lacks a timetable-based operating model, a dispatching plan for passenger trains, capacity evidence that the public can test, and a serious look at the federally selected future passenger projects. Statistical analysis cannot replace an operating demonstration, the association argues. It adds that passenger performance is already weak, so a promise not to make it worse is an insufficient test.

Jim Mathews, President and CEO of the Rail Passengers Association, said the railroads “treat those same trains as almost operationally irrelevant when passenger service is considered.”

He argued that the companies must demonstrate where the additional trains would fit if their forecasts prove accurate. Otherwise, the benefits attributed to that traffic may be overstated.

On the merits, the filing contends that the railroads have not shown that existing passenger service is protected. It also says they gave terminal and network effects too little analysis and ignored passenger growth that the Corridor ID program makes reasonably foreseeable.

Conditions sought if the merger is not denied

Should the Board allow the transaction to proceed, the association wants a set of enforceable passenger protections: performance standards set route by route, operating demonstrations before any material merger-related change to train plans, public reporting on performance and capacity, objective triggers for intervention, commitments to invest in capacity, safeguards for Corridor ID projects, outside checks on the railroads’ capacity models and ongoing Board oversight. It also asks the Board to make sure the merger does not cancel or weaken existing passenger agreements, settlements, legal rights or remedies of either railroad.

How Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern describe passenger service

On their merger website, the two companies say a route-by-route review of projected growth confirmed enough capacity to meet their commitments to Amtrak and commuter agencies. Existing agreements, Amtrak’s preference rights and on-time obligations would carry over unchanged, they say. By their count, Amtrak trains cover about 7.5 million miles a year on the combined network. New freight routings that bypass Chicago interchanges would, according to the companies, take freight trains off the region’s busiest shared lines. The railroads also say they will keep working with the Corridor ID program and other Federal Railroad Administration initiatives.

Passenger conditions in the STB’s 2023 CPKC approval

In March 2023, the Board approved Canadian Pacific’s acquisition of Kansas City Southern. In that decision, it made CP’s agreements with Amtrak a condition of approval. CPKC committed to back Amtrak’s expansion plans and fund infrastructure improvements. It also agreed to let Amtrak add service on the New Orleans–Baton Rouge line and through the Detroit River Tunnel to Windsor. The Board created a dispute resolution mechanism for service issues with Metra. Its oversight period runs seven years, covering a three-year rollout and the four years that follow, and can be extended.

Pending motions and the next deadlines

When it accepted the revised application in May, the Board listed passenger rail among eight areas requiring supplemental information. On August 18 it lifted the abeyance and adopted a procedural schedule. The Board said it would rule separately on the motions for summary denial from the industry associations, CSX Transportation and BNSF. Comments, protests and requests for conditions are due by November 18, 2026. Replies and the railroads’ rebuttal follow by February 16, 2027, and final briefs by May 28, 2027. No date has been set for a public hearing, and the Board aims to rule within 90 days of the record closing, once the environmental review is finished.

Dates from the Board’s August 18 procedural schedule and the UP-NS Merger Resources page, which records the August 31 extension.