East Palestine vent and burn risk models revealed
Newly obtained documents are providing new detail on the East Palestine vent and burn more than three years after the February 2023 Norfolk Southern derailment in Ohio. The records concern the government’s decision to carry out the controlled operation on the remaining train cars.
The procedure was later deemed unnecessary by National Transportation Safety Board investigators, while the decision has also been blamed for numerous health issues among nearby residents.
East Palestine vent and burn records and NTSB findings
The Government Accountability Project obtained more than 900 pages of records, including internal emails and federal plume models. The records indicate that the internal emails and plume models differed from what the public and officials working in East Palestine were told in 2023.
The “vent and burn” involved controlled explosions intended to reduce the risk of the vinyl chloride tank cars exploding on their own.
The Federal Railroad Administration considers the procedure a high-risk, last-resort option.
In its final report, the NTSB concluded that the vent and burn decision was not justified. The original decision followed what was described as a “drastic temperature change” in one rail car, where the temperature increased from 135 to 138 degrees Fahrenheit.
Directly before the controlled burn was set to begin, however, the same car’s temperature fell by 12 degrees. NTSB investigators said it was on a consistent “downward temperature trend”.
Those findings led investigators to state in their 2024 final report that there was “no imminent danger” requiring the vent and burn. The procedure still went ahead and released a plume of dangerous chemicals into the air.
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Federal plume models projected different outcomes
An initial plume model for the East Palestine vent and burn projected that nearly 18,000 people could suffer “harmful phosgene exposure,” while more than 1,900 residents were listed in “death possible zones”.
The records also contained projections for the alternative scenario in which the remaining rail cars exploded on their own. Those calculations projected minor injuries, with the number of residents in the “death possible” category falling to 29.
A worst-case explosion analysis projected only “minor injuries out to 225 meters” or 740 feet, according to the records obtained by the Government Accountability Project.
Emails in the released material indicate that federal employees expressed relief that the models had not been released to the public. The projections and documents were also reportedly kept from officials working on the ground in East Palestine.
Lesley Pacey, senior environmental officer at the Government Accountability Project, stated:
“The government modeled thousands of casualties, then buried the maps and let residents walk back into the plume. Officials warned each other about possible deaths and injuries, but kept the projections from the very people whose lives were at stake,”
Context
In its June 25, 2024 findings, the NTSB said the derailment itself was caused by a failed, overheated wheel bearing. It also said the local incident commander’s decision three days later to vent and burn five vinyl chloride tank cars was based on incomplete and misleading information from Norfolk Southern officials and contractors. Investigators found the procedure was not necessary to prevent a tank-car failure and said Norfolk Southern had rejected three other removal methods. The NTSB later issued safety recommendations addressing, among other issues, the lack of accurate, timely and comprehensive information provided to local incident commanders and state officials.
The documents were obtained by the Government Accountability Project through its Freedom of Information Act request.
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