Borealis tops 500,000 riders, over a third above Amtrak’s 2015 forecast pace

Amtrak Borealis ridership has passed 500,000 since the St. Paul–Chicago service began in May 2024, a pace more than a third above the 155,500 annual riders Amtrak forecast in 2015.

Amtrak and Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois, the three states that sponsor the daily train, reported the milestone on September 28. Counting every Amtrak train on the corridor since May 21, 2024, including Hiawatha Service runs linking Milwaukee with Chicago plus the long-distance Empire Builder, ridership exceeds 2.2 million.

That corridor total is wider than the one Amtrak gave in May 2025. Its first-anniversary figure of more than 293,000 riders for May 2024 to April 2025 counted only Borealis and Empire Builder trains and left out Hiawatha Service, so the two numbers cannot be compared directly.

How the total compares with Amtrak’s 2015 forecast

The 155,500 estimate comes from a feasibility report Amtrak prepared for the Minnesota Department of Transportation in May 2015. It is the yearly ridership forecast for the scenario closest to today’s Borealis: a second daily train between Chicago and St. Paul Union Depot, leaving St. Paul at 12:25 p.m. Scenarios that ran the train on to Minneapolis or St. Cloud were forecast at up to 185,100 a year.

Over the roughly 28 months from the May 21, 2024 start to the September 28 announcement, 500,000 riders work out at about 212,000 a year. That is an editorial calculation, and because Amtrak reports the total as a minimum, the real average may be slightly higher. Borealis had already beaten the full-year forecast within 11 months, carrying more than 205,800 riders through April 30, 2025.

Amtrak’s milestone releases show how the count built up. The 250,000th rider traveled over the Independence Day weekend in 2025, and the total passed 416,000 by the second anniversary in May 2026.

Chicago, St. Paul and Milwaukee together account for about three quarters of the Borealis station count, and at St. Paul the Borealis figure is more than twice the Empire Builder’s. The figures are preliminary station counts published by Amtrak in May 2025 and exclude Hiawatha Service trains. The Borealis column sums to 411,620, about twice the 205,800 trips, which indicates that each trip is counted at both its boarding and its arrival station (editorial calculation). In the earlier period the Empire Builder was the only train in Amtrak’s count at these stations; it has no figure at Milwaukee Airport or Sturtevant, which only Hiawatha trains served before Borealis.

Borealis seat demand since 2024

Seating has come up in Amtrak’s releases since the first months of service. When Borealis passed 100,000 riders in October 2024, Amtrak President Roger Harris said full trains, even in mid-week, were leading Amtrak and the states to look at adding capacity. By May 2026, Minnesota Transportation Commissioner Nancy Daubenberger said the train was still running at capacity. In the same release, Amtrak Executive Vice President Jennifer Mitchell said the company looked forward to adding seating capacity and service on the corridor over the coming months and years.

A fourth passenger car within weeks

The September announcement names the next step. Daubenberger said:

“We are thrilled that Amtrak will add a fourth passenger car to the service in just a few weeks, which allows more Minnesotans access to this safe, reliable transportation option.”

The release does not give a start date for the extra car or say how many seats it adds. Borealis runs once a day in each direction, leaving St. Paul around midday and Chicago before noon. Amtrak runs it under contracts with the three state transportation departments.